Tropical Storm Fay could make landfall in South Jersey as top winds strengthen to 60 mph - NJ.com

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Tropical Storm Fay, which has been pounding southern New Jersey with flooding rain Friday morning, is continuing its slow trek north into central and northern New Jersey, and its top winds have gotten stronger during the past few hours.

Fay’s maximum sustained winds had been swirling at 50 mph early Friday morning, but they have increased in intensity to 60 mph, with some gusts reaching 70 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of 11 a.m., the storm’s center was about 40 miles south of Cape May in southern New Jersey, and many forecasters say the storm could make landfall along the southeastern Jersey Shore between noon and 1 p.m.

Update: As of 2 p.m., Tropical Storm Fay has not yet made landfall, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm’s center was swirling about 25 miles east-southeast of Cape May and 140 miles south of New York City, moving north at a pace of 12 mph. Its top sustained winds remain at 60 mph.

Update: Shortly before 5 p.m., Tropical Storm Fay officially made landfall, just north-northeast of Atlantic City, according to the National Hurricane Center. This is the first tropical system to make landfall in the Garden State since Tropical Storm Irene struck in August 2011. (Superstorm Sandy also hit New Jersey, in October 2012, but it technically wasn’t a hurricane or a tropical storm. It was a post-tropical cyclone.)

The exact spot is still unknown, because the storm’s center could still wiggle slightly east or west.

“There is a chance it could graze Cape May or maybe even make a landfall there or in Atlantic County, then drift up through most of the state,” said Jim Sullivan, a meteorologist for the WeatherWorks forecasting company, based in Warren County.

Patrick O’Hara, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service, agrees the storm could make landfall along the Jersey Shore, but says it’s tough to pinpoint the exact location. For now, the weather service is favoring Atlantic or Cape May counties.

Roadways are flooded throughout Atlantic City, including this intersection at Virginia and Mediterranean avenues, due to heavy rains from Tropical Storm Fay, on Friday, July 10.Lori M. Nichols | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

Many forecasters originally thought Fay’s center would hug the Jersey Shore, then make landfall in New York City or Long Island.

While big tropical systems, like hurricanes, typically have a large, well-defined eye, Tropical Storm Fay is a small storm and has just a tiny eye.

“This storm has a very weak structure in the middle, a little pin in the middle, a very small center,” O’Hara said. “It’s a minimal tropical storm.”

Forecasters say Fay’s biggest threat to New Jersey is flash flooding — when heavy rain rapidly floods streets with bad drainage or causes swollen streams and rivers to quickly overflow. Heavy flooding was reported Friday morning in parts of Atlantic City, Avalon, Sea Isle City, Stone Harbor and Wildwood.

Dark clouds loom over the Steel Pier in Atlantic City as Tropical Storm Fay approaches southern New Jersey on Friday, July 10.Lori M. Nichols | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

The heavy downpours in South Jersey came from the northern bands of Tropical Storm Fay, ahead of its center of circulation, Sullivan noted. Once the center passes, there’s not much rain behind it.

As a result, conditions will be getting calmer in far southern New Jersey in the early afternoon and getting more intense in central and northern counties.

As much as 4 inches of rain was reported in Wildwood Crest earlier Friday morning, and the Rutgers NJ Weather Network reported 3.66 inches of rain in Cape May Court House and more than 3 inches of rain in West Cape May during a six-hour span.

Live weather radar

Landfall projections

Here are some projections on where Tropical Storm Fay will make landfall on Friday.

New flash flood warning (12:50 p.m. Friday)

The National Weather Service has issued a flash flood warning for Mercer County, Monmouth County, northeastern Ocean County, southern Somerset County and southwestern Middlesex County. The warning is active until 4:45 p.m. Friday.

New flash flood warning (1 p.m. Friday)

The National Weather Service has issued a flash flood warning for Gloucester County, Salem County, northwestern Cumberland County, northwestern Burlington County and northwestern Camden County. This warning is active until 5 p.m.

New flash flood warning (1:25 p.m. Friday)

A flash flood warning has been issued for Middlesex County, Somerset County and northeastern Monmouth County, effective until 5:15 p.m.

New flash flood warning (1:40 p.m. Friday)

A flash flood warning has been issued for Essex, Hudson, Union, eastern Passaic and southeastern Bergen in northern New Jersey, along with New York City. It is effective until 4:30 p.m.

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Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com.

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Tropical Storm Fay could make landfall in South Jersey as top winds strengthen to 60 mph - NJ.com
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