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Tim Benz: Super Bowl predictions and bets to make Sunday interesting — even without Steelers - TribLIVE

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Sadly for Pittsburgh Steelers fans, their team isn’t involved in the Super Bowl.

Again.

It’s been that way for a decade now.

But most of us in Pittsburgh will still be watching the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. So if you want some Super Bowl prop bets and predictions, I’ve got a few.

Not silly stuff like what color the Gatorade will be at the end of the game or how often Gisele Bundchen will be pictured.

Actual football ones.

The over-under for catches by All-Pro Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce is 7.5 at -135. If you look at Kelce’s average per game in 2020, it’s 7.4 counting the playoffs.

So that’s not a great potential payout given the number. But he has had 21 in the two playoff games. And this is the Super Bowl. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes will use him as often as needed. So I’ll make that wager.

Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill is between +1000 and +1200 to win the MVP on most outlets I’ve checked. Sure, if the Chiefs win, the award is likely to go to Mahomes.

However, a few big plays — especially scoring plays — to Hill without much volume could turn heads. Think Lynn Swann when the Steelers won Super Bowl X.

Did I shoehorn that reference into this column just so I had an excuse to post that video with that music in the background. Yes. Yes, I did. You are welcome.

Plus, Hill had 269 yards and three touchdowns on 13 catches against the Buccaneers during the regular season. Not to mention that he topped 100 yards receiving in both playoff games.

I sense value for money there.

I see the same thing on the Tampa Bay sideline at +120 for Leonard Fournette to score a touchdown. If the Bucs get the ball inside the 5-yard line, he’ll get carries.

On that thought line, Tom Brady likes to use his tight ends in the red zone. I could also see Rob Gronkowski or Cameron Brate scoring a touchdown.

As far as the line and the over-under? I’ve seen the point spread go down to K.C. by three points in some places and an over-under point total of 56.

I’ve been saying 31-28 Chiefs for two weeks. So gimme the over and let me buy a half-point in favor of K.C. on the spread.

I’ve heard quite a few people try to talk themselves into a Tampa Bay upset. A repeating theme is that the offensive weaponry for Tampa is actually deeper than Kansas City’s and that the Bucs pass rush could be a big problem for a banged-up Chiefs offensive line.

I agree with that logic. Especially the defensive part. After what I saw in Green Bay, knowing that Mahomes has a bothersome toe injury and his offensive line is reconfigured, I can see the Tampa pass rush coming up with a few crucial sacks along the way.

After all, they had five against the Green Bay Packers last week. And their 48 total sacks in 2020 was the fourth highest in the league.

I also agree that the Buccaneers have a higher quantity of dangerous skill position players at their disposal. Yet, I think that the three best skill position guys in the game are all on Kansas City’s side in Mahomes, Kelce and Hill. And it’s my belief the combination of those three will determine the outcome of the game.

Or, at the very least, the defense necessary to slow them down will result in a lot of space for other Chiefs players to operate.

That’s why I still see the Chiefs being the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champs since Brady’s Patriots did so to conclude the 2003 and 2004 seasons.

So again…

• Chiefs by a field goal (31-28)

• Over 56 points

• Kelce +7.5 catches

• Hill for MVP

• Fournette scores a touchdown

Enjoy the game, and feel free to mock me when I go 0 for 5 on my bets come Monday.

Tim Benz is a Tribune-Review staff writer. You can contact Tim at tbenz@triblive.com or via Twitter. All tweets could be reposted. All emails are subject to publication unless specified otherwise.

Categories: Sports | Steelers/NFL | Breakfast With Benz

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