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Could Irregular Downloads Make A Comeback? - Forbes

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The simultaneous release of “Wonder Woman 1984" in movie theaters and on HBO Max on December 25, after many delays, managed to break U.S. box office records and become the pandemic’s biggest box office success, raking in $16.7 million during the Christmas holiday weekend, exceeding industry expectations.

The film has also proved extremely popular on the download pages: the next day, it had garnered an unprecedented 10% of the torrents and streams downloaded on peer-to-peer sites. The ease of obtaining a quality copy through the HBO Max broadcast without moving from home meant that dozens of copies of the film were immediately available online, unlike in the days of screeners.

The idea of paying to watch a movie premiere at home may seduce a growing number of viewers, but obviously, it also implies making things easier for irregular downloaders. That said, things have improved since the “download wars” of some years ago. The availability of streaming services on a subscription basis has led to a huge increase in the amount of entertainment available simply and cheaply through recommendation algorithms, which has led to a steady drop in irregular downloading.

During 2020, the pandemic, confinements and increased home stays have led to a strong increase in demand for streaming services, up to 50% more in the U.S., with Netflix the winner, and where the average household pays for 3.1 subscriptions to streaming services, compared to 2.7 a year ago. Obviously, there’s a limit: as more players enter the market, it’s possible that the popularity of irregular downloads will increase.

However, an additional payment to the cost of the subscription to be able to watch a premiere movie would seem to have pushed many people to reconnect with download or streaming sites. Meanwhile, these have changed significantly: what was once non-profit content has evolved into sites that are packed with advertising, spyware and malware.

How will the industry react? Warner Bros.’ decision to release the latest Wonder Woman vehicle simultaneously generated some criticism among filmmakers who claimed that their creations were intended to be released on the big screen; but beyond these almost romantic objections, I am curious to see whether, after the lessons of approximately a decade ago, the attitudes of the major studios are different or not. Will we continue to see simultaneous releases in movie theaters and streaming services? Will download sites and users face prosecution? Or will they take a more measured and reasonable approach, along the lines of companies like Netflix?

The fact of the matter is that irregular downloading was never the problem, it was a symptom of the failure of content providers to meet demand and that new distribution channels were needed. Music downloads did not end because download sites were closed or users threatened with legal action: they decreased when Spotify arrived. Movie downloads ended when Netflix arrived. There will always be a percentage of users who will never pay for content, who will try to get it for free, and the technology will always be there to enable to do so. The role of the industry, rather than chasing people or threatening them, as in the past, should be to educate, to help them to adapt to the market; in short, to make the kind of offers that will encourage them to get on the program.

The question is, has the industry learned anything?

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Could Irregular Downloads Make A Comeback? - Forbes
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