We love you Philly, but you didn’t swing Pa. in this election. Northampton County, others did. - lehighvalleylive.com

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This is one in a series of stories that are part of Swing County, Swing State, a collaborative project between lehighvalleylive.com and nj.com that explores Northampton County’s critical role in the upcoming presidential election.

I love Philadelphia. My in-laws live there, I’d be content eating Whiz-laden cheesesteaks as my only form of sustenance and The Spectrum served as the venue for my most cherished concert memories.

But contrary to a narrative about the presidential election that’s been running its course on social media, Philadelphia didn’t do anything special in this election except take a long time to count a large number of ballots.

That Joe Biden supporters are crediting the City of Brotherly Love with swinging the Keystone State to his side goes to show that we often instinctively make big-and-shiny cities the settings in stories that ought to be set somewhere else.

Three Pennsylvania counties went from backing Barack Obama twice to backing Donald Trump when Trump carried the state in 2016. One of them, Luzerne County, stuck with Trump this time around. The other two dropped Trump and went with Biden. They were Erie County and… Northampton County.

Did these two counties alone prove pivotal in Pennsylvania as a whole swinging for Biden? No, but combined with other counties where Dems showed gains including the Philadelphia suburbs, they had a far greater role than Philadelphia.

Although Philadelphia’s late-arriving results (and Lehigh County’s results, to a lesser extent) definitely helped bring closure, Trump saw a higher percentage of Philadelphia’s vote this year than he did when he ran against Hillary Clinton four years ago. All the memes your liberal friends have shared of Gritty and Ben Franklin coming to the nation’s rescue won’t change that.

As for the two counties that do have tangible results illustrating the state’s swing to Biden, I can only speak about Northampton County, and I’ll say this: We told you so.

More than two months ago, lehighvalleylive.com and nj.com launched Swing County, Swing State, a collaborative project aimed at providing the most comprehensive look ever at why Northampton County is a bellwether that would rival any other county with a similar status in the nation. Northampton County has picked all but three presidential election winners in the past century. Its decision in the 2020 presidential election continues that trend.

We made the case that this would happen through dozens of stories that gave voice to voters here, gave context to the data available on our voting patterns and gave credence to a statement that should be invoked more frequently: “As Northampton County goes, often goes the state and the nation.”

Let me give you one astonishing data point from the unofficial results of last Tuesday’s election.

As of Wednesday night in Northampton County, Biden received 49.64% of the vote compared to 49.2% for Trump. Statewide, it was Biden at 49.76% and Trump at 49.06% as of the same time. That’s a difference of less than three-tenths of one-percentage point between the county and state numbers.

Trump’s campaign, to its credit, seemed to have figured it out. The president, in his second visit to the region this year, held a rally in Hanover Township eight days out from the election and dispatched surrogates here throughout the race. Biden’s campaign didn’t bother much with Northampton County until the final week of the campaign. A visit on the eve of Election Day from running mate Kamala Harris highlighted a late push.

In perhaps the biggest snub against the county, Biden on Oct. 24 traversed the region between two campaign stops — one to the south in Bucks County and one to the north in Luzerne County. For God’s sake, pull a Mitt Romney and at least stop at a Wawa around here while in transit between the two stops. Put on your mask, order a Shorti and wave to the folks pumping gas. You were going to be late to the Luzerne County event anyway.

So we’ve now had two consecutive presidential elections where the Democratic candidate didn’t make a public appearance in Northampton County. The circumstances were different in the latest one given the ongoing pandemic, but it still speaks to a system of national campaigning intent on ignoring certain areas that unquestionably put the candidate in front of people who are a reflection of the American electorate.

They can continue to visit Rocky Balboa’s hometown but they might want to try Larry Holmes' hometown if they’re serious about winning in 2024. For the uninitiated, Holmes is the real former heavyweight champion who’s nicknamed the “Easton Assassin” and still lives in Northampton County.

The memes about Philadelphia saving the union are wrong.

The reports about Northampton County being located somewhere in the Arctic Circle — “60 Minutes” became the latest media outlet to show its geographic illiteracy by identifying the county as a neighbor to Luzerne County in northeast Pennsylvania in its Sunday night CBS broadcast — are wrong.

And other strange assumptions about the county — I’d be remiss without mentioning the BBC News reporter who called me last Thursday asking that I put her in touch with coal miners — are wrong.

We hope the presidential campaigns for both parties in 2024 get it right and send their candidates here. It will no doubt be tense. Protests have long been the price of admission for any political candidate of national notoriety who comes to Northampton County. Just ask Harris, whose motorcade ended up surrounded by a crowd of boisterous Trump supporters during her visit to Lower Nazareth Township. The numbers show this is not overwhelmingly friendly territory for a presidential candidate of either party.

That’s the point. If you’re a Democratic candidate and want to only see friends, go to Philadelphia. If you’re a Republican candidate, we count solidly red counties by the dozen in this state. Maybe it’s about time both parties send their standard-bearers to Northampton County. Unlike Erie County, we have plenty of Wawas.

The project is being generously supported in part by a $25,000 grant from The John Farmer Memorial Journalism Fund. And please consider supporting ambitious local news like this with a subscription to lehighvalleylive.com.

Nick Falsone can be reached at nfalsone@lehighvalleylive.com.

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We love you Philly, but you didn’t swing Pa. in this election. Northampton County, others did. - lehighvalleylive.com
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